In last month’s article, we addressed the topic of active vs. passive management. Specifically, we provided clear and comprehensive evidence that active management is never a prudent decision. Today, we’d like to elaborate on this topic by relaying the story of a famous bet made by the greatest investor of all time – Warren Buffett. Mr. Buffett shares our perspective on this issue, and in typical fashion, made a large wager to prove his point.
We all have a natural inclination to want the stock market to move higher. But counterintuitively, for the vast majority of investors, lower market prices will actually lead to higher account balances down the road. There are of course some exceptions, but more than likely you’re about to find out why you’ve been spending your whole life hoping for the wrong outcome in the stock market.
In a previous article, we took a look at the business cycle to understand how the natural ebb and flow of our economy impacts things like asset prices, wages and interest rates. In this article, we’ll dive deeper into what exactly causes those dreaded periods we call recessions.
If you’ve ever worked with a financial planner or investment advisor, there’s a good chance you’re using an investment strategy known as strategic asset allocation. While you may not know it by that name, you’re probably familiar with how it works. What you may not be of aware of, however, are how recent changes in financial markets have made this approach to investing more dangerous than ever before.
In the quest to become a savvy investor, one of the most important concepts you must understand is that of the business cycle. This periodic ebb and flow of our economy exerts tremendous influence not just on asset prices, but on everything from interest rates to the availability of jobs. Since nearly every aspect of your financial life will be influenced in some way by the business cycle, it pays to have a basic conceptual understanding.
Evidence from numerous studies on behavioral finance suggests that the need for emotional comfort costs the average investor around 2-3% per year in foregone investment return. This shortfall, commonly referred to as the “behavior gap,” stems from the fact that optimal long-term financial decisions are often very uncomfortable to live with in the short-term.
Investing is very much a mental game. It requires an intellectual toughness and fortitude that is not only uncommon, but very difficult to develop. In this article we discuss the mental resilience that investors need to cultivate in order to stomach the fluctuations that come with being a successful investor.
With each and every investment that you make, you’re going to be giving up one benefit in exchange for another. Most of the time, this trade-off is between risk and potential return. Understanding this trade-off at a conceptual level will go a long way in helping you to select the right investments (or strategies) on your path to retirement.
Every year, top Wall Street analysts put their thinking caps on and try to forecast the upcoming year’s market return. The result of their analysis usually comes in the form of “price targets” which indicate where major indexes such as the S&P 500 are likely to be at year end. While price targets have little value themselves, what is valuable to investors is having a framework in which to view future returns.
If you’re going to sail into retirement with a nice fat portfolio and big sacks of money strewn across your deck, then you’re going to have to deal with some ups and downs along the way. Financial markets are volatile by nature, and how you respond to these critical, anxiety-inducing periods can make the difference between a meager retirement, and a life of luxury.
The age-old idea of not having all your eggs in one basket is considered timeless wisdom, but could it be working against you? In truth, diversification is a double edged sword. The benefit that it provides comes at a mighty cost. When it comes to investing, most individuals aren’t aware of the hidden price they pay for this so-called “free lunch.”
Anyone who’s been around for longer than a couple of decades knows that stocks can lose a lot of value quickly. These periods, when stock prices are falling, can be classified into two types of declines: corrections, and bear markets. Understanding the difference between these is critical, because the former represent minor speed bumps on the way to higher prices, while the latter can wreck your entire portfolio and set you back years from reaching your retirement goals.
Stocks? Bonds? Cash? Where should your money be invested? Over the last few decades it has become commonplace to talk about stocks and bonds from a fixed-allocation perspective. This approach to portfolio management has become ingrained in our society; however, it is a very dangerous way to approach investing.
Target-date funds have increased in popularity during recent years as a result of investors continually searching for easy, one-size-fits-all solutions to manage their money. But just how appropriate are these funds for the average investor? The answer may surprise you.
For most investors, the idea of “getting out at the top” is as illusive an idea as winning the lotto, or licking your elbow. The chances of picking that one magical day just seem too low to be probable. But is it really that tough? Or do most investors simply have a poor understanding of how stock market tops develop?
You shouldn’t invest in stocks simply because you’re young. Nor bonds just because you’re old. Your decision to be invested in either stocks or bonds should be entirely based on how those asset classes are likely to perform in the months and years ahead. And as conditions change, you need to remain nimble, ready to adjust your portfolio to accommodate new developments.
Whether we like it or not, the value of our portfolios depends heavily on the behavior of financial markets, which, in turn, are intertwined with the economy. Therefore, how and where we invest are dictated in large part by our expectations of future economic growth. As the U.S. and other G7 economies slow, it’s going to permanently change the investment landscape.
The concept of momentum originated with regard to classical mechanics, in which it refers to the tendency of a moving object to keep moving along its direction of travel. In finance, and especially with regard to investing, we talk in terms of price momentum. As you can infer, this is the tendency for asset prices to continue moving in the same direction they are currently heading.
Jim Cramer’s Actions Alerts Plus is a subscription service offered through TheStreet.com. It allows investors to trade alongside Cramer as he makes investment decisions for his charitable trust stock portfolio. With over 70,000 paid subscribers, the service appears to be very successful. But just how well has the Action Alerts PLUS Portfolio performed over time? And how does Model Investing stack up?
