When markets fall, three different terms get used as if they mean the same thing: correction, bear market, and crash. They don’t. Each has a specific definition, a different historical pattern, and a very different implication for your portfolio. Knowing which one you’re in matters. A correction usually resolves in months, but a bear market …
The direct answer: No, the Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) is not technically a 401(k). But it functions almost identically. Both are employer-sponsored, tax-advantaged defined contribution retirement plans with the same annual contribution limits and the same tax options. The critical difference: the TSP is exclusively for U.S. federal employees and military members, while the 401(k) …
Key Takeaways Recessions are temporary, but the damage from panic-selling your TSP can be permanent. Each of the five TSP funds—G, F, C, S, and I—plays a different role during economic downturns. Moving to the G Fund or F Fund before or during a downturn can protect your portfolio from catastrophic losses. The investors who …
The Truth About 401(k) Millionaires Most people assume a seven-figure retirement balance requires a six-figure salary, a lucky stock pick, or decades of white-knuckling through market volatility. The reality is far more accessible and far more instructive. According to Fidelity Investments’ Q2 2025 retirement analysis, there are currently 595,000 401(k) millionaires in the United States, …
The Government Shutdown is a Wake-Up Call for Every Investor The recent government shutdown has left thousands of federal workers waiting for their next paycheck, a situation that reminds us all how fragile financial stability can be. Even if your job feels secure, unexpected events like layoffs, medical emergencies, or economic slowdowns can disrupt your …
Starting January 2026, the Thrift Savings Plan will allow Roth in-plan conversions, moving money inside your TSP from traditional (pre-tax) to Roth (after-tax). That may sound technical, but it’s a big deal for federal employees and service members: you’ll have a new way to shape how your retirement income is taxed. This guide explains what …
The Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) is the premier retirement savings program for federal employees and military personnel. With low fees, tax advantages, and diversified investment options, the TSP is a powerful tool for building long-term wealth. However, understanding the plan’s nuances and choosing the right TSP allocations are key to maximizing returns and ensuring a …
If you’re one of the roughly 75% of investors who are using a target-date fund in your retirement plan, you need to read this. We’ve written about why you should say no to target-date funds before, but new research provides the clearest evidence yet for why these funds must be avoided.
As you begin to set aside money for retirement, one of the first and most critical decisions you’ll face is what type of account to put that money in. Should you contribute to your 401(k) first? Or is paying down debt a better idea? What about an IRA or a 529 plan? Should you be contributing to those as well? And what do mason jars and your mattress have to do with any of this? These are the types of questions we’ll attempt to answer as we explore the most effective way to save for retirement.
When it comes to investing, the focus is usually on returns, or risk. But believe it or not, the small expenses that you incur along the way can actually have a huge impact on your overall net worth. While these expenses can’t be avoided, they can certainly be minimized … and doing so can save you a fortune.
These days, the rage is all about passive investing. That’s because over the last few decades, it’s become crystal clear that active management (aka. stock picking) doesn’t work. Even the most astute stock pickers, with millions of dollars’ worth of research at their fingertips, consistently underperform basic index funds.
Mutual funds have long been a staple for investors, offering instant diversification and the prospect of having a professional money manager in charge of your portfolio. But changes to the structure of investment vehicles, specifically the introduction of exchanged-traded funds (ETFs), have rendered the old-school mutual fund obsolete.
In last month’s article, we addressed the topic of active vs. passive management. Specifically, we provided clear and comprehensive evidence that active management is never a prudent decision. Today, we’d like to elaborate on this topic by relaying the story of a famous bet made by the greatest investor of all time – Warren Buffett. Mr. Buffett shares our perspective on this issue, and in typical fashion, made a large wager to prove his point.
We all have a natural inclination to want the stock market to move higher. But counterintuitively, for the vast majority of investors, lower market prices will actually lead to higher account balances down the road. There are of course some exceptions, but more than likely you’re about to find out why you’ve been spending your whole life hoping for the wrong outcome in the stock market.
In a previous article, we took a look at the business cycle to understand how the natural ebb and flow of our economy impacts things like asset prices, wages and interest rates. In this article, we’ll dive deeper into what exactly causes those dreaded periods we call recessions.
If you’ve ever worked with a financial planner or investment advisor, there’s a good chance you’re using an investment strategy known as strategic asset allocation. While you may not know it by that name, you’re probably familiar with how it works. What you may not be of aware of, however, are how recent changes in financial markets have made this approach to investing more dangerous than ever before.
When you begin to save for retirement, the easiest way to get started is to enroll in your employer-sponsored retirement plan (401(k), 403(b), TSP, etc.). The next step (or the first step, for those who don’t have access to an employer-sponsored plan) is generally to open an Individual Retirement Account (IRA). These types of accounts provide great tax advantages, and come in two types: “Roth” and “Traditional.”
In the quest to become a savvy investor, one of the most important concepts you must understand is that of the business cycle. This periodic ebb and flow of our economy exerts tremendous influence not just on asset prices, but on everything from interest rates to the availability of jobs. Since nearly every aspect of your financial life will be influenced in some way by the business cycle, it pays to have a basic conceptual understanding.
Evidence from numerous studies on behavioral finance suggests that the need for emotional comfort costs the average investor around 2-3% per year in foregone investment return. This shortfall, commonly referred to as the “behavior gap,” stems from the fact that optimal long-term financial decisions are often very uncomfortable to live with in the short-term.
Investing is very much a mental game. It requires an intellectual toughness and fortitude that is not only uncommon, but very difficult to develop. In this article we discuss the mental resilience that investors need to cultivate in order to stomach the fluctuations that come with being a successful investor.
With the Federal Reserve having recently raised interest rates for the fourth time since the financial crisis, we thought it was an opportune time to discuss how changes in interest rates affect you as an investor. In this article we discuss the role of interest rates in an economy, how those interest rates change over time, and how those changes affect the value of different components of your portfolio.
With each and every investment that you make, you’re going to be giving up one benefit in exchange for another. Most of the time, this trade-off is between risk and potential return. Understanding this trade-off at a conceptual level will go a long way in helping you to select the right investments (or strategies) on your path to retirement.
Every year, top Wall Street analysts put their thinking caps on and try to forecast the upcoming year’s market return. The result of their analysis usually comes in the form of “price targets” which indicate where major indexes such as the S&P 500 are likely to be at year end. While price targets have little value themselves, what is valuable to investors is having a framework in which to view future returns.
Keeping our long-term goals in mind at all times requires an immense amount of effort. That’s why we’re often sidetracked by short-term wants and needs. Automating certain parts of the investment process is akin to putting guardrails around your financial ability to misbehave … it’ll keep you out of trouble and ensure you stay on track for long-term success.
If you’re going to sail into retirement with a nice fat portfolio and big sacks of money strewn across your deck, then you’re going to have to deal with some ups and downs along the way. Financial markets are volatile by nature, and how you respond to these critical, anxiety-inducing periods can make the difference between a meager retirement, and a life of luxury.
Regardless of whether you’re a seasoned investor, or someone just getting started, it often helps to review the most basic fundamental principle that underlies all of investing: compounding. If you truly understand the power of compounding, then you recognize that beyond any other force, it is time that exerts the greatest influence on your investment portfolio.
The age-old idea of not having all your eggs in one basket is considered timeless wisdom, but could it be working against you? In truth, diversification is a double edged sword. The benefit that it provides comes at a mighty cost. When it comes to investing, most individuals aren’t aware of the hidden price they pay for this so-called “free lunch.”
The unfortunate reality is that nothing in this world is certain. In fact, the only thing in life that is certain … is that nothing is certain. This is especially true when we talk about money and investing. Since we can’t deal with certainties, we’re forced to deal with probabilities. Therefore, probabilities become the lens through which we must view all things investment related.
Here at Model Investing, we’re constantly trying to innovate to ensure that we deliver the best performance possible for our clients. Over the past couple of years, we’ve been working to refine and enhance our suite of Investment Models, and today we’re proud to announce the upcoming release of new versions of each of our models.
Anyone who’s been around for longer than a couple of decades knows that stocks can lose a lot of value quickly. These periods, when stock prices are falling, can be classified into two types of declines: corrections, and bear markets. Understanding the difference between these is critical, because the former represent minor speed bumps on the way to higher prices, while the latter can wreck your entire portfolio and set you back years from reaching your retirement goals.
You’ve heard of the gender pay gap, but are you aware of the gender investing gap? Put simply, women do not invest to the same extent that men do. As a result, when retirement rolls around, women end up with only two-thirds as much money in their portfolios. This is a BIG problem, especially when you consider that women in the U.S. tend to live on average 6.5 years longer than their male counterparts.
For most investors, the idea of “getting out at the top” is as illusive an idea as winning the lotto, or licking your elbow. The chances of picking that one magical day just seem too low to be probable. But is it really that tough? Or do most investors simply have a poor understanding of how stock market tops develop?
Have you ever wanted to be a business owner? Well, congrats … you already are. The minute you have even a few thousand dollars to your name, you’re officially a professional money manager running your own investment firm. Of course, you probably don’t see it that way, but that’s because you haven’t been enlightened yet. No one has ever spelled it out for you before. Well … it’s time to fix that.
Whether we like it or not, the value of our portfolios depends heavily on the behavior of financial markets, which, in turn, are intertwined with the economy. Therefore, how and where we invest are dictated in large part by our expectations of future economic growth. As the U.S. and other G7 economies slow, it’s going to permanently change the investment landscape.
Tune in to the stock market on any given day, and you’ll likely find the major averages zooming in one direction or the other. Sometimes the moves are choppy, rising and falling while generally heading nowhere, while other times the market can seemingly run for weeks or months in one direction.
Log in